The analysis by data and analytics firm GlobalData shows the region’s planned and new-build projects over the next four years will account for about 37% of the global gas processing capacity growth up to the mid-decade.

The Middle East is expected to have a new-build gas processing capacity of 21 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) by 2025. Of this, 19.4 bcfd is set to come from planned projects that have already received approval, with the remainder made up of non-approved announced projects.

“In the Middle East, a total of 26 planned and announced gas processing plants are expected to start operations by 2025,” said Nachiket Kaware, oil and gas analyst at GlobalData.

“Of these, the planned Ras Laffan-NFE plant in Qatar has the highest gas processing capacity of 4.6 bcfd. It would process gas from the giant North Field East project and helps Qatar to maintain its status as one of the leading producers and exporters of LNG in the world.”

Former Soviet Union to rank second behind Middle East for gas processing capacity growth by 2025

GlobalData identified the Former Soviet Union as the second-highest region in terms of global gas processing capacity growth, adding a new-build capacity of 16 bcfd by 2025.

The Ust-Luga gas processing plant in north-west Russia is projected to have the highest capacity amongst planned and announced gas processing plants in the region by 2025, with 4.3 bcfd of gas processing capacity.

Meanwhile, the Amur II gas processing plant in south-east Russia is expected to place second on the list with 2.7 bcfd of gas processing capacity.

North America is set to be the third-highest region for gas processing growth, with a new-build capacity of 12.4 bcfd by 2025. Of that growth, 4.6 bcfd is expected to come from planned projects, while announced developments will account for the rest of the capacity.

The Chetwynd and NGL North II projects in Canada are the largest projects in North America with capacities of 1.5 bcfd and 1 bcfd.

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The 25 CEOs, which are representing members of the Global Wind Energy Coalition for COP26, have sent an open letter to leaders of the G20 calling on them to show leadership in the climate crisis by raising national ambitions and urgently laying out concrete plans for increased wind energy production to replace fossil fuels.

While the letter acknowledges some progress has been made in the energy transition, it claims current net-zero pledges from G20 countries still put the world on a 2.4C global warming pathway, which is above the required levels to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

The CEOs also highlight that wind energy and renewables installations are currently falling “well short” of the trajectory needed to meet international climate goals, requiring “urgent action to improve energy policies”.

“G20 member countries represent more than 80% of global energy-related carbon emissions – so the leaders of these countries hold the power and public duty to transform the world’s energy system,” said Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) CEO Ben Backwell.

“These countries need to get serious about renewables and, in particular, wind energy as the clean energy solution with the most potential to help the world meet its Paris Agreement targets.”

Global wind capacity will fall “dramatically short” of the volumes required for net zero by 2050, say CEOs

The letter is signed by the leaders of the largest wind power companies – including Vestas Wind Systems, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Ørsted, SSE, RWE, and Mainstream Renewable Power, as well as associations representing the industry in the UK, Europe, Brazil, China, Mexico, South East Asia and South Africa.

The signatories highlight that the recent roadmap from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that annual wind deployment must quadruple from 93 gigawatts (GW) in 2020 to 390GW in 2030 to meet a net zero by 2050 scenario.

Both the IEA and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) are aligned in the total wind energy capacity required for a net-zero scenario, which is compatible with a 1.5C warming pathway, foreseeing a need for 8,265GW and 8,100GW by 2050.

If current growth rates for wind energy persist, the letter argues that global wind capacity will fall “dramatically short” of the volumes required for carbon neutrality by 2050, with installation shortfalls of as much as 43% by 2050.

“G20 countries have huge amounts of untapped wind power potential that can fulfil significant portions of national electricity demand, but they are barely scratching the surface of what they can deploy,” said Rebecca Williams, director of COP26 at GWEC.

“With the current pace of wind power installations across the world, forecasts show that we will only install less than half of the wind power capacity needed to get to net zero by 2050.”

Wind industry CEOs recommendations to G20 countries

To reach the necessary level of wind power deployment for a net-zero scenario by the mid-century, the letter makes six recommendations to the G20 nations.

It asks them to raise ambition for wind power at the national level; implement effective policy and regulatory frameworks for procurement and delivery of renewable energy; commit to rapid build-out of clean energy infrastructure including grids and transmission; agree effective and credible carbon pricing mechanisms; align national and regional finance flows with benchmarks for a net 1.5C-compliant pathway; and develop cohesive and inclusive policies that dedicate public resource to the shift to a net-zero economy.

In the past 20 years, wind energy has demonstrated its ability to increase production exponentially while reducing costs, create millions of skilled jobs and spur large-scale infrastructure investment.

But the letter emphasises that achieving the scale and speed of deployment needed to tap into these benefits and achieve net-zero ambitions is unrealistic under the present “business as usual” conditions, and unachievable without “decisive and urgent policy change” across the G20 countries.

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Next year, if everything goes to plan, Oxford PV will become the first company to sell perovskite-silicon-based solar cells to the residential rooftop market. They will have a potentially game-changing efficiency, about 20% higher than the current incumbent technology, silicon-only cells.

Oxford PV employs a “tandem” concept in which a thin film of perovskite is applied to a conventional silicon primary (or bottom) cell (the perovskite thickness being about 1/200th of that of the silicon).

This tandem approach improves the ability to capture specific parts of the solar spectrum, particularly at the high-energy, blue end, meaning that the perovskite-on-silicon tandem cell has a theoretical efficiency limit of 43% vs 29% for silicon-only cells.

In practice, the average efficiency of residential silicon PV installed to date is in the range of 15-20%, while the “real world” maximum for silicon is estimated to be about 26%.

The early commercially produced Oxford PV tandem cells are expected to achieve an efficiency of about 27% initially, but the company anticipates steady improvements as the technology develops in the coming years. “We have a clear roadmap to take this technology beyond 30%,” says CEO Frank Averdung.

Dr Chris Case, CTO at Oxford PV, notes that since 2014, when the company decided to focus exclusively on the perovskite-Si tandem, it has boosted the efficiency of its solar cell roughly by one percentage point per year on average and has a path and the theoretical foundations to further develop this technology all the way to the high 30s.

A research cell employing the Oxford PV technology has already achieved 29.52% (as certified by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory), a world record for perovskite-Si tandem cells and also better than any single-junction research cell (for which the current record, 29.2%, is held by a cell employing GaAs).

Perovskite was first discovered in its naturally occurring mineral form (CaTiO3) in 1839 (coincidentally the same year as the photovoltaic effect was first observed, Chris Case points out). But it is only in the last ten years or so that the huge potential of synthetic perovskites as a material for solar cells has been fully recognised.

Prof Henry Snaith, who co-founded Oxford PV in 2010 to commercialise solar technology transferred from his laboratory at the University of Oxford (and is the company’s chief scientific officer), has played a key role in this, notably via a paper published in Science in 2012, describing a viable solid-state solar cell technology employing metal halide perovskite.

Progress over the past 10 years has been remarkably rapid and perovskites are attracting increasing interest in the solar field.

Like all materials used in solar cell applications, perovskites – for which the generic chemical formula is ABX3, where A and B are cations and X is the anion – are semi-conductors.

“Perovskites will be ubiquitous in photonics and electronics for the next 50-100 years,” Chris Case believes. “It’s that stunning a material.”

From a materials science standpoint, “there is a uniqueness, that’s why it’s so good,” he adds. “Each of the atoms is oriented as a set of octahedra that are stacked on top of each other, and twisted. That twist allows ‘anomalous’ high photocurrent diffusion, and that’s pretty much unique to this structure, and people are exploiting this property…This stuff is great, it’s unbelievably transformative.”

Also, the materials used for synthetic perovskites are abundant, and the amount used per unit of cell output is very small. “So, from a resources standpoint, the technology is capable of being scaled to the many TW level,” says Case.

And as well as demonstrating record efficiency, cells and modules using the Oxford PV technology have also “passed externally measured industry-standard reliability tests from the International Electrotechnical Commission,” he adds.

The route to market

“The scientists have done their job,” says Frank Averdung. “They have identified the material. They have made the structure. They have worked at making it stable and have addressed concerns about durability and lifetime. The question we have to figure out an answer to now is: how do we commercialise it?”

The challenge is one that is faced by pretty much every start-up with something new, he says. “You have an established market. You have established market players. You have something significantly better. But how do you get people to embrace it? How do you make it happen?”

As he points out, the established players are multibillion-dollar companies and they have invested billions into a manufacturing infrastructure. “Are they really interested in scrapping all of that and doing something new?” asks Averdung.

The good news is that the Oxford PV tandem technology, with silicon as the primary cell, does not require the jettisoning of existing manufacturing technology and “does not disrupt the industry”, and this is a major benefit.

“When we put a thin film perovskite cell on top of the silicon ‘primary’ cell, it still has the same form factor and still looks like a conventional Si cell, but the output voltage is higher,” says Averdung. “You can use the same tools and insert them into the same modules. The panel size is the same. Everything is the same. But you get significantly more power out.”

In terms of appearance the end-user will not notice any major difference, except it will “look a little bit nicer”, he adds.

In 2015, Oxford PV demonstrated that the tandem cell was feasible, but needed to “bring it to the required form factor”, he explains, so required a pilot production line or “used factory”.

Just such a factory was found in Brandenburg an der Havel, Germany, and acquired in 2016. “It was way too large for us that time but was a perfect fit for our thin-film pilot line”, which was up and running in 2017,” says Averdung.

“The role of the pilot line was, and still is, essentially product optimisation, taking all the results from the Oxford lab and scaling them up form-factor-wise and carrying out industry-standard testing to verify that the cells are achieving the required reliability and long term stability, and meeting industry needs.”

For some years, Oxford PV worked with a joint development partner, a very large company in the photovoltaics business, “basically telling us what the industry would want”, says Averdung.

But in 2018, he adds that “all that changed”, and the company decided the “best and fastest route to commercialisation of the technology would be to do it ourselves, enabling us to keep all the parameters of the technology under our control so we could be certain that the product, when it came to the market was a perfect fit to customer demands”.

This required the firm to find investors that would put money into it, enabling it to set up a manufacturing operation. “We were lucky”, says Averdung, as a number of supportive investors were found. The company’s major shareholders now include Equinor, Legal & General Capital, Goldwind and Meyer-Burger.

The money put into the company by investors made it possible to upgrade the Brandenburg factory previously acquired and, in addition to the pilot line already there, establish a full tandem cell manufacturing line in a different part of the facility.

This will be the world’s first volume manufacturing line for perovskite-on-silicon tandem solar cells and is expected to achieve an initial target capacity of 100 megawatts (MW) around Q2 next year.

The cells are being sold to module makers (arrangements are already in place), and the initial target market is the “premium” residential rooftop sector. In this segment of the market, space is a critical constraint and the increased power density provided by the Oxford PV tandem cell is particularly attractive.

With much more electricity generated over the installation’s lifetime, there is a willingness to pay substantial premiums for high-efficiency modules, Oxford PV believes.

Averdung points out the costs of the cells account for a relatively small proportion of the total costs of a residential rooftop PV installation, so increased cell costs have only a relatively small effect on the overall economics compared with the benefits of increased output.

Towards the gigafactory

The 100-MW manufacturing line, and the residential rooftop market, are seen as just the beginning. Oxford PV’s vision is an all-electric world with perovskites as a mainstream solar technology. It is hoped the company’s latest funding round will give it “the means to plan the next step, which is a gigafactory”, says Averdung.

He hopes to have 2 gigawatts (GW) of production capacity in operation by the end of 2024 or thereabouts, and then to add about 2GW per year, reaching more than 10GW by the end of the decade.

Initially, the target market is, as already noted, the premium residential rooftop, but “this will change once we get into GW scale production, then we will be able to address, in addition, the small-commercial rooftop sector”, says Averdung, and “as soon as we move to 5GW and beyond, utility-scale is within reach”.

At utility-scale, “it is all about LCOE”, he observes, “assuming the cost of your land is manageable”, and at 5-GW production capacity “our LCOE will be more competitive than anyone else’s, but that will take a few years, of course”.

In the end “we intend to become one of the major players in photovoltaics”, says Averdung. And mastering what Chris Case calls the “magic” of perovskites could prove to be the key to achieving that ambition.

This article originally appeared in Modern Power Systems magazine

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That is according to analysis by Wood Mackenzie, which suggests a supercycle is on the way but warns that this time it will be “different from any that have come before”.

The energy researcher claims fossil fuels won’t be in the vanguard and the winners will be the industrial metals needed to electrify society – cobalt, lithium, copper, nickel, and aluminium.

“While China’s move to secure battery raw materials is well documented, less well-known is its increasing self-sufficiency extending downstream,” said Simon Morris, Wood Mackenzie’s head of metals.

“75% of global lithium-ion batteries, 70% of all solar panels, and 60% of electric vehicles (EVs) are made in China. But its aspirations have not yet been satisfied and we expect its control to continue to grow.”

Energy transition gathering serious momentum, with commodities supercycle just around the corner

While post-pandemic government stimulus packages have provided a sugar rush for commodities and prices of base metals have surged, this in itself is not supercycle material, according to Wood Mackenzie.

But it said the markets have also sensed that the energy transition is now “gathering serious momentum” and is likely to fuel a sustained increase in demand over the next two decades, supporting a new supercycle narrative.

It is projected $50tn of investment will be needed over the next three decades to achieve a 1.5C global warming trajectory, as outlined in the Paris Agreement.

This will electrify societies’ infrastructure and engineer out the aspects of economic activity that most significantly contribute to carbon emissions, with metals supply set to play a vital role in achieving this.

Wood Mackenzie’s report identifies three potential developments that could challenge how the next commodities supercycle unfolds and who, ultimately, benefits from it.

Firstly, the concentrating control of metals’ supply chains is likely to exclude many from the party.

The systemic supply uncertainty and ensuing price volatility, encouraging disruptive new technologies such as next-generation electrofuels, polymeric energy storage, and cobalt-free batteries – thereby forcing “traditional” commodities into obsolescence.

And finally, the rise of “consumption consciousness”, undermining the long-term reliance on primary metal.

China dominating energy transition value chains

With China dominant in its control of energy transition value chains, non-Chinese entities face an ever-diminishing share of any commodity windfall, according to Morris.

“With greater cash comes greater investment capability, enabling China to realise a strategy of supply security at any cost,” he added.

“Those that choose to participate too late in the cycle – be they nations seeking to secure supply for themselves, customers wanting to protect their production lines, or investors wanting to cash in on supernormal profits – are likely to find that they either can’t afford to participate or are precluded altogether.”

Morris believes price fluctuations could also throw a spanner in the works. He said that with EVs emerging as a “critical source of demand”, metals producers will have to consider how they supply a new type of consumer – one with an “acute focus on price and supply predictability”.

“If EV manufacturers cannot guarantee access to critical metals at an affordable and predictable price, they will look to innovate or thrift them out to the greatest extent possible,” added Morris. “As the supply challenge materialises, the inexorable rise in prices will surely incentivise alternatives.

“As we saw with the increasing rejection of plastic usage, a greater focus on sustainability may see society react against the very considerable rise in the use of primary metals used in cars, mobile phones, telecoms, and infrastructure. Either buying less or demanding greater re-use presents a considerable downside risk for the producers of tomorrow.”

Required increase in metals supply presents challenges for producers and consumers

Wood Mackenzie’s report shows the forces that are shaping up to drive this boom are unique. But even for those commodities stepping into the limelight, it said decarbonisation creates as many risks as it does opportunities.

Under the energy researcher’s proprietary Accelerated Energy Transition-2 (AET-2) scenario, which is consistent with limiting the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times to 2C, 360 million tonnes (Mt) of aluminium, 90 Mt of copper, and 30 Mt of nickel will feed the energy transition over the next 20 years.

The report notes that this level of additional metal presents obvious challenges for producers and consumers alike.

“As with all commodities, the metals that are key to the transition will have to bring on replacement capacity to replace existing mines as they deplete and close,” said Morris.

“Under our base case, which is broadly consistent with a 2.8-3˚C global warming view, this requirement is manageable. However, under our AET-2 scenario, the new annual installed capacity required becomes eye-watering.

“By 2030, cobalt producers would need to have built 167% more supply than we currently have in our forecast, while copper would need to find 85% more mine supply than in our base-case forecasts. This will present a huge challenge for the sector.”

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The analysis by the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) found that life in MDCs has improved significantly over the past 23 years.

The report analyses 41 social metrics grouped under 12 relevant UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and, across three-quarters of the metrics, it claims there has been “significant progress” made on socio-economic development.

“This report builds on the extensive research we conducted in 2018, challenging the notion that an abundance of natural resources in host countries damages economic and social progress,” said ICMM’s CEO Rohitesh Dhawan.

“However, without strong resource governance and, most critically, effective implementation of mining regulations and frameworks, host countries are unlikely to feel the benefits of mining operations.

“The mining industry has a central role to play in this as a catalyst for change, supporting effective implementation of the frameworks needed to help deliver the UN SDGs.”

Higher governance quality in mining-dependent countries leads to stronger socio-economic progress

The ICMM’s report metrics include neo-natal mortality, adult literacy, and access to electricity. Its findings show the greatest progress has been made across health and wellbeing, access to quality education, clean water, sanitation and affordable clean energy.

The countries with the biggest relative improvements include Bolivia, Botswana, Indonesia, Ghana, and Peru.

The research indicates that most MDCs, which are amongst some of the poorest in the world, continue to close the socio-economic performance gap with non-resource dependent countries.

But ICMM insists that governance is still important. It suggests the higher the quality of governance, the stronger the socio-economic progress observed in these countries.

The council said a stable, enabling environment has the strongest positive relationship with good socio-economic outcomes.

The analysis indicates that countries that are more peaceful have lower levels of corruption, and a vocal and active civil society with sufficient civic space are more capable of translating natural resources into social progress.

It said having mining regulations and frameworks is an “insufficient condition” for good socio-economic outcomes and demonstrates that effective implementation is “critical”.

“In the wake of the pandemic, mineral-rich developing countries face rising poverty, increased corruption risks and growing debt,” said Suneeta Kaimal, the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)’s president and CEO.

“Good governance by countries and companies – disclosing critical information, ensuring open public dialogue, and promoting evidence-based decision making – is crucial to enabling sustainable, equitable recovery for citizens and a greener planet.

“ICMM can leverage its collective power to help producer countries harness growing demand for minerals associated with the energy transition, develop new models for benefit-sharing, reinforce lessons learned about good governance, and ultimately transform potential into prosperity.”

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The analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) shows new LNG import project sponsors in the region attempted to capitalise on commercial support offered by the US Commerce Department and other federal agencies during the Trump administration.

It found that several new entrants in the LNG industry have proposed multibillion-dollar integrated gas-to-power projects with long-term commitments to buy US LNG.

The success of many of these ventures may rest on their ability to attract financial support from US development finance agencies, including the US Export-Import Bank and Development Finance Corporation.

But, the report notes that given their thin track records, overly ambitious project timelines, and potential changes in US climate and trade policy under the Biden administration raises questions about the “ability of these companies to bring project proposals to fruition”.

“It is unclear whether many of these LNG projects will enjoy continued support from the US government,” said Sam Reynolds, an energy finance analyst and the report’s lead author.

“And several of the development consortia appear to have little practical experience in launching complex overseas projects.”

Export growth in Asian markets has become more challenging for the US LNG sector

Many figures in the US oil and gas industry have expressed high hopes for exporting LNG, particularly to Europe and Asia, as a way of overcoming domestic growth limitations, according to the IEEFA.

But it said prospects in Europe have “faltered” as governments have adopted more aggressive carbon emissions targets.

Export growth in Asia has also become more challenging for the US LNG sector as China, India and emerging Asian importers look to purchase LNG volumes from more competitive, geographically closer producers with lower production and shipping costs, it added.

The IEEFA believes the Biden administration is likely to take a “more restrained approach” to supporting new fossil fuel projects abroad.

It uses a January executive order as an example, where US development agencies were directed to work towards “ending international financing of carbon-intensive fossil fuel-based energy,” while statements from high-level officials have suggested an end to all federal support for fossil fuel projects except in cases with “demonstrable climate or national security benefits”.

While it remains difficult to predict the Biden administration’s policy approach to LNG, the report notes that prospects for US LNG exports to Southeast Asia could be “far less bullish” than some in the industry imagine if the administration takes a “more tempered approach” to fossil fuel-related development financing.

“Without US government support, many of the more ambitious LNG import projects in Vietnam and other emerging countries could fall by the wayside,” it added.

“Any limitations on US support for large-scale LNG import projects could compound the industry’s ongoing challenges.”

The IEEFA highlights that numerous US LNG export projects have “struggled to reach financial close” due to an inability to secure long-term offtake agreements from creditworthy buyers abroad.

As a result, it said project sponsors may face longer project development timelines as policymakers in the US and Asian countries re-assess the market and climate risks that will determine whether US LNG can find a natural home in Asia’s energy growth markets.

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Hydrogen is gaining prominence as a critical component of the energy transition as significant policy support and government commitments to deep decarbonisation are spurring investments in the technology.

According to analysis by data and analytics firm GlobalData, this momentum that has been built along the entire value chain is accelerating cost reductions in hydrogen production, transmission, distribution, retail and end-applications.

“Large-scale adoption of hydrogen can fuel a significant increase in demand for renewable power generation,” said Bhavana Sri Pullagura, senior power analyst at GlobalData.

“Also, large hydrogen production could help reduce curtailment in grids with a high share of variable renewable electricity. Hydrogen output can be used as a ‘smart’ load to help decarbonise the economy and improve power system flexibility.”

More than 30 countries have announced hydrogen-specific strategies

Currently, hydrogen is largely used as a feedstock for industrial processes, in the production of ammonia for fertilisers and refining, and in food, electronics, glass and metal industries.

With global leaders in the energy industry searching for solutions that could help them achieve decarbonisation or enhance energy security, GlobalData claims hydrogen seems to be “on track to becoming an energy vector” and that its usage is “gathering momentum”.

Hydrogen is likely to play a crucial role in the clean energy transition in sectors such as transportation, buildings and power generation. Interest in the technology is also increasing in a range of niche transport market segments, according to GlobalData.

By 2070, it expects global demand for hydrogen to increase sevenfold, with transport, industry and power set to be the main users. Its role in the power sector is predicted to have a share of 15%, allowing for more flexible electricity generation.

“Many countries are stepping up their efforts to increase green hydrogen and hydrogen usage for the energy transition, with a focus on larger-scale, more power system-friendly electrolysis,” said Pullagura.

“More than 200 projects have been announced across the value chain, most of them in Europe, Asia and Australia.

“More than 30 countries have announced hydrogen-specific strategies. Governments have already pledged more than $70bn and included new capacity targets and sector-level regulation to support these initiatives.

“Hydrogen production costs are expected to decline due to the advent of giga-scale projects. For renewable hydrogen, the biggest driver is a faster decline in the cost of renewables than previously expected, aided by at-scale deployment and low financing costs.”

But Pullagura claims lower costs of renewable are “not enough” for the production of low-cost clean hydrogen as he believes value chains for electrolysis and carbon management should be “scaled up”.

“This will require public support to bridge the cost gap,” added Pullagura. “Declining costs of clean hydrogen and application-specific cost drivers improve the cost competitiveness of hydrogen applications.

“The next few years will be decisive for the development of the hydrogen ecosystem, for achieving the energy transition, and for achieving the decarbonisation objectives.”

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The analysis by KPMG in Canada notes that minerals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel are “critical” to the green and digital transition underway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to cap the rise in global temperatures at “well below” 2C by 2100, with 1.5C being the ideal scenario.

The production of minerals needed to deploy wind, solar, geothermal power and energy storage is predicted to increase by nearly 500% by 2050, according to the World Bank.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates demand for lithium used in batteries, which help to power electric vehicles, is expected to expand by a factor of 30 by 2030.

Outlook for Canadian miners “extremely positive” following green metals demand

Heather Cheeseman, partner and Toronto mining leader at KPMG in Canada, said the outlook for the mining industry is “extremely positive”.

“The year-long rally in commodity prices, even with the recent volatility sparked by inflationary concerns, is driven not only by pandemic-induced supply chain issues but also climate-action demand for green metals and the massive spending expected on infrastructure,” she added.

But, Cheeseman warned their growth prospects could be dimmed by many factors, including how companies respond to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks, and technological transformation.

The report, titled Risk and Opportunities for Canadian miners, is based on a survey of 225 global mining companies, including 89 headquartered in Canada.

It revealed Canadian miners are far more concerned than their global peers about the “S” in ESG criteria by which investors evaluate sustainable, long-term financial returns.

The key findings include that 42% of Canadian miners ranked community relations and social licence to operate as the top ESG risk (24% globally), only 19% included environmental risk as a top risk (27% globally), and 90% agreed they need a clear, measurable ESG strategy (79% globally).

The pandemic is accelerating the focus on ESG, particularly on how credible, reliable, and accepted mining companies and projects are in the local communities where they operate, according to Cheeseman.

“The days of considering ESG factors as ‘soft’ secondary risks are long gone,” she added. “Investors are demanding miners have clear and measurable strategies in place. ESG now dominate boardroom conversations in every mining company, and mining leaders overwhelmingly agree this is a top priority.”

Nearly two-thirds of Canadian miners believe organic growth is important to expand over next three years

KPMG’s research also shows miners are focused on innovation and technology to help control costs and grow sustainably.

About a third of Canadian and global miners believe innovation and technological transformation will drive future growth and nearly half expect major technology disruption in the next three years, with four out of five viewing it as an opportunity instead of a threat.

But only a third of Canadian miners believe their organisation is actively disrupting the industry through digital innovation, compared to half of the global respondents – a trend the report notes could be an “issue for future competitiveness”.

“There is a distinct need to find ways to better manage costs and mitigate risks whether that’s through consolidation or embracing innovation,” said Cheeseman.

Nearly two-thirds of Canadian miners believe organic growth is important to expand over the next three years, compared to just over half of their global peers, according to the analysis.

It also shows that more than two in five (44%) Canadian miners cited merger and acquisition activity as important for growth versus 22% globally.

“The results may not be surprising given the numerous small- and medium-sized miners in Canada that may not have the ability to scale up or access capital to meet rising demand, embrace innovation or address growing ESG expectations,” said Cheeseman.

“Consolidation may provide the opportunity for many players to address these as well as drive efficiencies and lower costs.”

While access to capital had previously been a top risk, more Canadian miners now claim their ability to access equity financing has improved over the past year, largely due to investor interest in the green economy transition.

The report identified 10 risks for Canadian miners in 2021. The top five included commodity price risk concerns reflect ongoing volatility; global pandemic risk; community relations and social licence to operate strengthening in ESG agenda; permitting risk; and economic downturn/uncertainty.

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The move will see Rio, Australia’s second-largest miner, collaborate with South Korea’s biggest steel producer to explore, develop and demonstrate technologies that will enable the transition to a low-carbon emission steel value chain.

The partnership will explore a range of technologies for decarbonisation across the entire steel value chain from iron ore mining to steelmaking, including integrating Rio Tinto’s iron ore processing technology and POSCO’s steelmaking technology.

“This partnership with POSCO, a valued and long-standing customer, demonstrates our combined commitment to working together to identify ways to reduce emissions across the steelmaking process,” said Alf Barrios, Rio Tinto’s chief commercial officer.

“The agreement also complements Rio Tinto‘s partnerships with other customers as the industry focuses on developing technologies that support the transition to a low-carbon economy.”

Rio Tinto and POSCO both targeting net-zero emissions by 2050

Rio said the MoU with POSCO underlines its commitment to working in partnerships with customers on steel decarbonisation pathways and to invest in technologies that could deliver reductions in steelmaking carbon intensity of at least 30% from 2030 or with the potential to deliver carbon-neutral steelmaking pathways by 2050.

Both companies share the ambition to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 as part of the global efforts to limit the impacts of climate change.

As one of South Korea’s largest industrial firms, POSCO’s efforts to decarbonise will play an important role in achieving the country’s ambition to become carbon neutral by 2050 – a target that has inspired Korean companies to accelerate their decarbonisation activities.

“Tackling climate change is a critical item in achieving sustainable development for a better future,” said Hag-Dong Kim, POSCO’s head of steel business unit.

“On the journey to achieving carbon neutrality with Rio Tinto, we can play an important role of finding a way to build a low-carbon steel industry.”

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The French multinational recently rebranded from Total SE to TotalEnergies following an almost unanimous decision by the company’s shareholders.

The rebranding comes as the firm aims to pull itself away from its traditional business practices that focused on oil and gas developments in order to become more of an all-encompassing energy company.

But, unlike its peers, TotalEnergies is forecast to see material growth in its oil production over the near term, according to analysis by data and analytics firm GlobalData.

“TotalEnergies has made significant strides to investing more heavily in its low carbon, renewables business, however, unlike most other major European oil and gas companies, TotalEnergies is forecast to see a rise in its oil production over the near term,” said Conor Ward, oil and gas analyst at GlobalData.

“Most of the European majors have made the commitment to pull back on oil developments and push their focus more towards gas and low-carbon technologies, while TotalEnergies is proving to still be committed to large scale oil developments and, within the next five years, oil production is forecast to grow.”

TotalEnergies set for steady growth in crude oil and condensate production despite energy transition strategy

Despite its ageing fields declining, TotalEnergies is forecast to experience steady growth in crude oil and condensate production through to 2025 from 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.23 million bpd.

The largest portion of this growth is expected to come from its recently approved Ugandan assets surrounding Lake Albert in the west of the country, where TotalEnergies holds a 66.6% stake in a 230,000-bpd project.

“The company has a significant amount of crude oil and condensate production, which could come from unsanctioned projects such as Cameia in Angola, North Platte in the US, and Gato Do Mato in Brazil,” said Ward.

“However, based on the decision taken in Uganda and the company’s recent acquisition in Block 20 Angola, these projects may suffer delays if the company seeks to reduce its crude oil production.”

TotalEnergies has suggested it does not intend in the short term to reduce its scope 1 and 2 emissions, which are created by its own operations and purchases of energy.

GlobalData said this means many of the company’s projects currently on hold have a higher chance of going ahead than if it had planned to reduce those emissions in the coming years.

But the firm is planning to reduce its net scope 1 and 2 emissions from 2025 onwards and reach net zero by 2050.

“For the company to continue investing in low carbon and renewable technologies, the increase in oil production and continued investment in major oil developments sends a clear signal that these types of projects continue to showcase attractive economic returns that may help the company deliver its longer-term strategic transformation goals,” said Ward.

“It remains unlikely that the company can continue to develop large scale oil projects given its long term environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) commitments.”

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